Belarus elections: an exercise in democracy or a foregone conclusion?

By Michael Knezevic

On the 9th August, President Alexander Lukashenko will be looking to win his sixth term in Belarus – ‘Europe’s last dictatorship’. Having won every election since the country became independent after the break-up of the Soviet Union, his tenure has been marred by political repression, accusations of electoral fraud and the resulting sanctions established by the international community.

Presidential terms were capped at two by the 1994 Constitution, but this stipulation was systematically overruled in a series of term-limit referendums and presidential elections which have been characterised by a Lukashenko majority of around 80% and a similarly high voter turnout. Will the opposition’s new anti-establishment direction be enough to stop history repeating itself?

Lukashenko Belarus Elections 2020 — President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. Photograph by Serge Serebro, Vitebsk Popular News.

Even before the pandemic, the Belarusian economy was struggling, crippled by a collapse in demand for oil and high levels of foreign debt. Lukashenko then refused to implement a lockdown or close the country’s borders, instead instructing citizens to drink vodka and pay regular visits to the sauna in order to stave off the virus (1). The economy, however, did not conform to the ‘business as usual’ policy. As Europe went into lockdown, demand for oil refining products – accounting for nearly half of Belarus’ exports – collapsed (2). In the past, institutions such as the IMF (International Monetary Fund) have ceased to cooperate with the country in light of political repression during the 2010 presidential campaign. Undeterred, the regime raised funds by issuing a USD $1 billion worth of bonds on the London Stock Exchange, which were bought overnight by Western investors.

Five presidential candidates have successfully registered with the Central Election Commission (CEC), having obtained the requisite 100,000 signatures. YouTuber Sergei Tikhanovsky had been leading the polls for the opposition, until he was detained by the authorities during the registration period on what are thought to be trumped up charges. Neighbouring Ukraine has also seen a move away from career politicians vying for the presidency, with current President Volodymyr Zelensky formerly portraying the president in a comedy series. Sergei’s wife, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, has taken over the campaign on his behalf and has since received anonymous threats suggesting her children could be taken away from her. Sergei had been running on an anti-corruption platform with the slogan ‘Stop the cockroach’, inspiring the ‘slipper revolution’ – the preferred weapon for killing cockroaches. Some protestors symbolically brought their slippers to anti-Lukashenko demonstrations. The other three candidates, Anna Kanopatskaya, Andrei Dmitriyev and Sergei Cherechen, are essentially token competitors, allowed to register in order to embellish the facade of free and fair elections.

Sergei Tikhanovsky protests Belarus elections 2020 Lukashenko — Sergei Tikhanovsky addresses protestors. Photograph by stranadlyazhisni via Instagram

Viktor Babaryka, the previous opposition front-runner, had amassed 400,000 signatures – an unprecedented amount of support for an opposition candidate in Belarus. He has since been arrested for tax evasion and money laundering. He was also charged with the alleged involvement of a foreign organisation in his campaign, as he is the former CEO of Belgazprombank (a subsidiary of the Russian banking giant Gazprombank).

Another leading candidate, Valery Tsepkalo, had a significant portion of his signatures declared illegitimate by the CEC, bringing him below the threshold required to register. The former ambassador to the US and founder of a successful high-tech business park in Minsk was an advocate for Belarus’ growing tech sector and a potential move towards free market policies (3). Fearing arrest, he has since fled to Russia.

The main difference in this presidential cycle, other than the anti-establishment sentiment amongst opposition candidates, is the rhetoric around Russia. The volatile relationship with Russia regularly sways between talk of reunification, and animosity caused by Belarus’ intermittent rapprochement with the West. The current election campaign marks the first time that Russia has been scapegoated as a disruptor of internal politics, with the blame in the past usually falling on Western foreign agents.

Although the accusation initially seemed hapless and unsubstantiated, 33 suspected mercenaries from the Russian private military company ‘Wagner’ were arrested on the 29th July for attempting “to destabilise the country during the election campaign”, according to Olga Korelina. At an emergency meeting for presidential candidates, State Security Council Secretary, Andrey Ravkov, ominously warned that there could be as many as 200 mercenaries on Belarusian soil – “trained in subversion and sniper activities”. However, Belarus has a history of aggrandising security threats during periods of political instability, including the run up to the 2010 presidential elections (4).

In some regards, Belarus has retained its Soviet structures – all nine national TV channels are state-controlled, for example. Beyond the capital, Lukashenko has cultivated the image of being ‘batka’, a colloquialism for ‘Father’, amongst the rural majority. Despite this, control of the security services, a planned economy and a heavy-handed approach to political opposition have meant Lukashenko does not need to actively pursue a cult of personality.

The president wields a 24% approval rating according to the official polls – however, independent pollsters believe the number is closer to 3% (5). The opposition is increasingly composed of businessmen and characters accessing new demographics via online platforms, such as Sergei Tikhanovsky. Perhaps then, this anti-establishment tendency is indicative of an upcoming shift to a more ‘European’-style democracy. Europe on the whole boasts significantly freer and fairer elections; the right to campaign without the fear of being detained is a key component which is missing in the Belarusian system.

Human rights abuses and an unorthodox handling of the Covid-19 crisis have hindered relations with the West, while accusations of meddling have alienated Russia – Belarus seems set to entrench its geopolitical isolation. Despite this, Lukashenko is likely to see the familiar 80% victory on yet another improbably high voter turnout, but growing political unrest and an ailing economy will severely undermine his authority in the coming term. By taking on a sixth consecutive term in this manner, the President will have essentially cornered himself both domestically and internationally. But cockroaches are notoriously resilient…

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Belarus elections: an exercise in democracy or a foregone conclusion?

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