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Why Ethiopia recorded the world’s largest number of internally displaced people in 2018
In 2018 unprecedented conflict in Ethiopia brought the nation’s total figure of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to 2.9 million (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre). According to the UNHCR, internally displaced persons are considered: ‘persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their home or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalised violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognised state border.’
Ethiopia’s recorded number of IDPs in 2018 made it the nation with the largest number of newly internally displaced people in the world. To put this into context, Ethiopia’s IDP population is more than half the size of the 5.6 million Syrian refugees displaced from the Syrian conflict since 2011. So why has Ethiopia, Africa’s fastest growing economy and a rapidly liberalising nation, been the subject of such civil strife? The answer lies in an amalgamation of factors that are largely rooted in the tensions created by its federal system of government, which, have festered over time and reached breaking point in 2018.
Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism was born in 1994, after former autocratic Prime Minister Meles Zenawi introduced a new constitution which restructured Ethiopia from a centrally unified nation to a federation composed of nine regional ethnic states. Importantly, this formally devolved legislative and executive functions onto state-level governing bodies. Although in practice the then ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Party Coalition (EPRDF), led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front between 1991-2018, commanded authority of the nation from the top to bottom.
However, following the EPRDF’s party election of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (locally known as Abiy) in 2018, the newly elected Prime Minister brought sweeping reform to a state apparatus that had been constructed under the nation’s previous authoritarian regime. Abiy’s rampant reforms were a reflection of the fact that the EPRDF had finally lost its grip on the country, and consequently ethnic federalism was truly unleashed. This witnessed a greater transference of real power to state-level, where the states themselves are split along ethnic lines. This permits the state-level majority ethnicity to further dominate, thus exacerbating the marginalisation of minority ethnicities. Herein lies the root cause of Ethiopia’s steadfast conflict, which is felt on both a local and national political level.
As a nation home to a population of 109 million that belong to over 80 ethnic groups, its division into 9 federal states declared as ‘ethnic homelands’ has created immense disparity between permanent majority ethnic groups and minority groups who reside within the same region. Ethiopia’s ethnic plurality makes up a rich tapestry of diversity, and many are not based in distinct ‘ethnic territories’ but are spread across regions. Thus the discrepancy pertaining to governance and rights afforded to majority and minority groups, under a system that defines political power by ethnic identity, has laid the foundations for widespread fragmentation and inter-ethnic violence. In 2018 these tensions markedly manifested along the border between the Gedeo and West-Guji region (See figure below) causing the number of Ethiopia’s internally displaced persons to skyrocket.
Historically, the Gedeo, a majority ethnicity in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR – see figure above), and the Guji, an Oromian splinter group, coincided peacefully within the SNNPR and Oromian regions. However, following the 1994 constitution’s realignment of territory, grievances arose over land concerning which zones belonged to the SNNPR and which to the Oromian state. The reemergence of conflict in 2018 is based upon long standing-grievances over land demarcation and ethnic minority rights, particularly pertaining to populations of the Gedeo living in West Guji, Oromia.
This conflict alone has caused the displacement of more than 800,000 people (Reuters) who have been forced to shelter in overcrowded conditions with scarce resources and poor sanitation. This follows a pattern of conflict that has arisen under similar pretences across the nation, notably, on the Oromo-Somali border and in the Benishangul – Gumuz region. Although the government has attempted to stabilize regional conflict and has instituted repatriation programs for IDPs, violence persists with no durable solution in sight.
Abiy, who now leads the current federal party coalition and successor to the EPRDF, the Prosperity Party, has pioneered a groundbreaking transformation of the nation since his inauguration.
This includes:
· A peace agreement with Eritrea in 2018, ending an 18 year border-conflict (for which Abiy received the nobel peace prize);
· Inviting exiled opposition leaders to return home to Ethiopia to contest democratic elections;
· Liberalising the nation’s economy;
· Freeing restrictions placed on media organisations;
· Establishing legal reform councils to ameliorate a legal framework that was responsible for the suppression of widespread civil and political rights;
· Bringing gender parity to his cabinet of which half is made up of women.
Yet, whilst these reforms were thought to be a turning point in Ethiopia’s bloody history, violence continues to be perpetuated along ethnic lines.
Since 1994, the interrelationship between ethnicity and nationalism has become the prime identity marker for Ethiopia’s political constituents. It thus has an immense influence over political discourse and has disseminated identity politics within the nation. In particular, ethno-nationalist parties, predominantly those emanating from Tigray, Amhara and Oromo, have utilised ethnic identity as a tool for political mobilisation, which has cut across religious, class and other divides.
Abiy, an Oromian himself, is now attempting to alter governance in Ethiopia by transcending the system of federalism so that is based on a criteria of territory rather than ethnicity. In this federal system, rights would be dispensed according to residence rather than ethnic identity. Whilst these are invaluable strides for resolving conflict throughout the nation, Abiy continues to be met with great opposition, particularly from conservative politicians in Amhara and Oromo, who oppose his rapid reforms and the growing liberalisation of the nation.
After being dominated for decades by Tigrayans, who comprise 6% of the Ethiopian population, Amhara and Oromo, the two largest ethnicities in the nation, now demand their time in the sun. Political elites at the top brass of the nation’s political infrastructure are often responsible for stoking ethnic tensions in regions volatile to ethnic conflict, to this end. For instance in Gedeo and West Guji, the Oromo Liberation Front and the Gedeo People’s Democratic Organisation have played central roles in expediting conflict. Unfortunately, both parties have utilised ethnicity as a tool to accentuate cultural differences, rather than underscoring the shared cultural practices which have allowed them to peacefully co-exist for so long in the context of Ethiopian nationhood.
Although Ethiopia’s future remains uncertain, it is without doubt that 2020 will be an incredibly influential year in charting the nation’s future for the years to come. With an upcoming general election set for August 29, 2020, (albeit delayed indefinitely due to Covid-19), the future of Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism largely rests on Abiy’s ability to maintain political power in the nation, and continue with his immense reforms. However, strong political opposition is not all that stands in his way of retaining leadership in Ethiopia. The government must not only reconcile its problem of internal displacement but also reconcile the influx of refugees, of which Ethiopia currently hosts 900,000 (unrefugees.org) largely emanating from South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, but also as far as Syria. Additionally, the nation is engulfed in an emerging conflict with Sudan and Egypt over the Blue Nile’s water resources, with Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, set to power electricity across the country, but concurrently reducing water availability for its neighbours. Bearing all of this in mind, Abiy’s government is currently charged with navigating unchartered and tumultuous waters, with the government’s policy-making on profound and challenging issues, as well as the outcome of the general election set to bear vast ramifications on the fabric of the nation.
Author: Aidan Mitchell
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